HF Propagation Conditions: Solar and Geomagnetic Forecasts

 
Solar activity for the period of January 17 - 23, 2014 :
 

Activity level      : mostly low to high
X-ray background 
flux (1.0-8.0 A)    : in the range of B2.0-C1.0
Radio flux (10,7 cm): a fluctuation in the range of
                      110-170 f.u.
Flares:     class C : 0-15/day
            class M : 0-5/period
            class X : 0-2period
Proton events       : 0-2/period
Rel. sunspot number : in the range of 40-145

Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of January 17 to January 23, 2014:
 

The geomagnetic field will be:
  quiet on               January 19, 20 and 23
  quiet to unsettled on  January 21 and 22
  unsettled on           January 17 and 18
  active on              -
  minor storm on         -
  major storm on         -
  severe storm on        -

Geomagnetic activity summary:
The geomagnetic field was quiet  from January 10
to January 13 and January 15, quiet to unsettled
on January 9 and 14.

RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept., Czech Republic
 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of January 18 - February 12, 2014 :
 

The geomagnetic field will be:
  quiet on               January 18-21, 25, 27,
                         February 1, 7-9
  mostly quiet on        January 22, 24, 26, 31,
                         February 4 - 6, 12
  quiet to unsettled on  January 23, 30, 
                         February 2-3, 10-11
  quiet to active on     January 28
  active to disturbed on Janaury 29

Growing solar wind  may cause remarkable changes
in  the magnetosphere and in  the  ionosphere on
January 27-31, February 11-13.
Remarks:
Parenthesis mean a lower probability of activity
enhancement.
If until April 2014 (possible secondary maximum)
solar  activity  will  not  reach  a  similar or
higher  level  than in  November 2011, then 2012
will remain to be the maximum of the  24th cycle
(R = 70) - and vice versa.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
 

P.I.G. Bulletin 140116 (issued January 22, 2014):
 

Solar and geomagnetic forecast for the period of
January 17, 2014 - February 12, 2014
================================================
Solar  activity  will  continue  to fluctuate at
solar flux levels of about 110-180 s.f.u. during
the next few weeks.
A common occurence of class C flares and of some
class M flares  is  expected, class X flares are
exceptionally possible.

The geomagnetic field will be:
  quiet on               January 18-21, 25, 27,
                         February 1, 7-9
  mostly quiet on        January 22, 24, 26, 31,
                         February 4-6, 12
  quiet to unsettled on  January 23, 30,
                         February 2-3, 10-11
  quiet to active on     January 28
  active to disturbed on January 29

Growing solar wind  may cause remarkable changes
in  the magnetosphere and in  the  ionosphere on
January 27-31 and February 11-13.
Remarks:
Parenthesis mean a lower probability of activity
enhancement.
If until April 2014 (possible secondary maximum)
solar  activity  will  not reach a  similar or a
higher level than the one of November 2011, then
February  2012  will  remain  the maximum of the
24th cycle (R = 70) - and vice versa.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)

 


Solar, Geomagnetic and HF Propagation Forecasts

Provided by our member František Janda, OK1HH, this is the forecast of solar and geomagnetic activitiy. It used to be released by the Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic until December 31, 2011. Besides the solar activity datas, this full service has been discontinued after 34 years.
Fortunately, the OM Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, and František Janda, OK1HH, have decided to provide the forecast of solar and geomagnetic data as well as a brief HF propagation prediction as "Propagation Interested Group" (P.I.G.) on a voluntary basis and in a new format for some interested parties, and DTC is delighted and proud to be among those to receive this service.
DTC propagates the forecast by airing it on HF by DKØDTC as part of our regular Monday QTC transmissions.