Solar, Geomagnetic and HF Propagation Forecasts
Provided by our member František Janda, OK1HH, this is the forecast of solar and geomagnetic activitiy. It used to be released by the Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic until December 31, 2011. Besides the solar activity datas, this full service has been discontinued after 34 years.
Fortunately, the OM Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, and František Janda, OK1HH, have decided to provide the forecast of solar and geomagnetic data as well as a brief HF propagation prediction as "Propagation Interested Group" (P.I.G.) on a voluntary basis and in a new format for some interested parties, and DTC is delighted and proud to be among those to receive this service.
DTC propagates the forecast by airing it on HF by DKØDTC as part of our regular Monday QTC transmissions.
HF Propagation Conditions: Solar and Geomagnetic Forecasts
Solar activity for the period of January 17 - 23, 2014 :
Activity level : mostly low to high X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A) : in the range of B2.0-C1.0 Radio flux (10,7 cm): a fluctuation in the range of 110-170 f.u. Flares: class C : 0-15/day class M : 0-5/period class X : 0-2period Proton events : 0-2/period Rel. sunspot number : in the range of 40-145
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of January 17 to January 23, 2014:
The geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on January 19, 20 and 23 quiet to unsettled on January 21 and 22 unsettled on January 17 and 18 active on - minor storm on - major storm on - severe storm on -
Geomagnetic activity summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet from January 10 to January 13 and January 15, quiet to unsettled on January 9 and 14.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept., Czech Republic
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of January 18 - February 12, 2014
:
The geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on January 18-21, 25, 27, February 1, 7-9 mostly quiet on January 22, 24, 26, 31, February 4 - 6, 12 quiet to unsettled on January 23, 30, February 2-3, 10-11 quiet to active on January 28 active to disturbed on Janaury 29
Growing solar wind may cause remarkable changes in the magnetosphere and in the ionosphere on January 27-31, February 11-13. Remarks: Parenthesis mean a lower probability of activity enhancement. If until April 2014 (possible secondary maximum) solar activity will not reach a similar or higher level than in November 2011, then 2012 will remain to be the maximum of the 24th cycle (R = 70) - and vice versa.
F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
P.I.G. Bulletin 140116 (issued January 22, 2014):
Solar and geomagnetic forecast for the period of January 17, 2014 - February 12, 2014 ================================================
Solar activity will continue to fluctuate at solar flux levels of about 110-180 s.f.u. during the next few weeks. A common occurence of class C flares and of some class M flares is expected, class X flares are exceptionally possible.
The geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on January 18-21, 25, 27, February 1, 7-9 mostly quiet on January 22, 24, 26, 31, February 4-6, 12 quiet to unsettled on January 23, 30, February 2-3, 10-11 quiet to active on January 28 active to disturbed on January 29
Growing solar wind may cause remarkable changes in the magnetosphere and in the ionosphere on January 27-31 and February 11-13. Remarks: Parenthesis mean a lower probability of activity enhancement. If until April 2014 (possible secondary maximum) solar activity will not reach a similar or a higher level than the one of November 2011, then February 2012 will remain the maximum of the 24th cycle (R = 70) - and vice versa.
F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)